Imagine a scenario where long-held alliances are crumbling, old enemies are clashing, and the fate of an entire region hangs in the balance. That's precisely what's unfolding in northern Syria right now, as the Syrian army advances towards Raqqa, a crucial stronghold of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). But here's where it gets controversial: this advance is happening after the Syrian army captured the strategic city of Tabqa and its military airport in a rapid offensive.
To understand the gravity of this situation, let's break down the key players. The SDF, largely composed of Kurdish fighters, has been a vital partner in the fight against ISIS. They've received training and support from the United States. Now, the Syrian army, loyal to the current government, is moving to regain control of territory held by the SDF since 2015.
Government forces recently seized the Euphrates Dam, also known as the Tabqa Dam, a vital infrastructure point located roughly 50 kilometers (31 miles) west of Raqqa city, following intense clashes with the SDF. Furthermore, reports indicate a significant build-up of Syrian military equipment in the Raqqa governorate, signaling a potential escalation of the conflict.
US urges de-escalation as Syrian army advances on Kurdish-held territory
US says it killed al-Qaeda-affiliated leader tied to deadly Syria ambush
Syrian forces capture oilfields, dam as allied tribal fighters inside Raqqa
Week in pictures: From anti-Trump protests in Greenland to Uganda elections
Recent fighting also ignited between the Syrian army and SDF forces near Aleppo on January 6th, triggered by stalled negotiations regarding the integration of Kurdish fighters into the Syrian national army. Prior clashes occurred last month, preceding a deadline for the SDF to relinquish heavy weaponry and transfer control of areas within Aleppo to the national army.
So, what's the real story on the ground? Will this offensive by the Syrian army intensify the conflict in northern Syria, potentially drawing in other regional and international actors? And this is the part most people miss: this isn't just about territory; it's about power, resources, and the future of Syria.
What's the Latest from Syria's Northeast?
On a recent Sunday, the Syrian army announced control over Tabqa, approximately 40 kilometers (24 miles) west of Raqqa. This victory also included capturing the Euphrates Dam, the largest in the country, and the Freedom Dam (formerly known as the Baath Dam).
Adding another layer of complexity, government-allied groups claim to have seized the Asayish headquarters – the security and police force of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria – in Markada. Tribal fighters aligned with the government have also reportedly taken control of significant oil and gas fields in the northeast, including Jafra and Conoco in the Deir Az Zor province bordering Iraq. The Syrian Petroleum Company has stated that Syrian forces now control the Rasafa and Sufyan oilfields in Raqqa, paving the way for a potential resumption of production.
Syrian state media has accused the SDF of deploying drones in areas east of Deir Az Zor, further fueling tensions. Social media footage, verified by Al Jazeera, shows celebrations in Hajin and al-Shuhayl in Deir Az Zor, allegedly after the SDF withdrew from the area. The Deir Az Zor governorate has declared a temporary closure of public institutions due to the ongoing conflict.
Noureddine al-Baba, a spokesman for the Syrian Ministry of Interior, asserted that police forces have secured all areas recently captured by Syrian soldiers.
On a prior Saturday, the SDF withdrew from Deir Hafer and surrounding villages in Aleppo, areas predominantly inhabited by Arab populations. Syrian forces subsequently moved in, sparking celebrations among the residents.
Hussein al-Khalaf, a resident of Deir Hafer, told Reuters, "It happened with the least amount of losses. There's been enough blood in this country, Syria. We have sacrificed and lost enough. People are tired of it.”
However, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, affiliated with the SDF, accused the Syrian government of violating a withdrawal agreement, claiming attacks on their forces since the previous morning. The SDF also warned that the attacks on Raqqa could jeopardize security, as the city holds thousands of ISIL (ISIS) detainees.
The US-backed SDF, formed in 2015, represents an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The US envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, is expected to meet with SDF leader Mazloum Abdi (also known as Mazloum Kobani) and interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus.
This renewed fighting has widened the divide between al-Sharaa’s government, committed to reunifying Syria, and the Kurdish authorities who harbor deep distrust of the new administration. Al-Sharaa recently issued a decree recognizing Kurdish as a "national language" and granting official recognition to the minority group.
How Significant is Control of Raqqa?
Raqqa, a northern governorate with a majority Arab population, is home to some of Syria’s largest oil and gas fields. Kurdish anxieties have been heightened by past sectarian violence.
Omer Ozkizilcik from the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs suggests this situation reveals the SDF's "social and demographic fragility." He wonders if the SDF will acknowledge this reality and agree to integrate into the Syrian state as Damascus demands.
Syrian affairs analyst Omar Abu Layla argues that the SDF "wasted time," assuming the government was weak, and missed opportunities to integrate into the Syrian army. He believes we're witnessing "the end of the SDF."
What was the March Agreement Between the Syrian Army and SDF?
On March 10th, al-Sharaa and Abdi reached an agreement emphasizing Syrian unity, stipulating the integration of "all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria" into the Syrian state administration. This included border crossings, the airport, and oil and gas fields. It also affirmed the Kurdish people's integral role in Syria, guaranteeing citizenship and constitutional rights.
After the deal collapsed, heavy fighting resumed in Aleppo, prompting a US-brokered ceasefire on January 10th.
The SDF's leadership is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), considered a "terrorist" group by Turkey, the EU, and the US. Despite this, the US backed the SDF as an effective partner against ISIS.
How Has the US Reacted?
Washington has urged the Syrian army to halt its advance into Kurdish-held territory. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, emphasized the need for teamwork among Syrian partners in coordination with US and coalition forces to aggressively pursue ISIS.
William Laurence, a former US diplomat, believes resolving the political impasse between Syria's government and the SDF will be "very difficult." He stresses the need for trust-building, which has been lacking.
What Has al-Sharaa Said?
Al-Sharaa issued a decree formally recognizing Kurdish as a "national language" and restoring citizenship to Kurdish Syrians. The decree also grants Kurdish Syrians rights, including recognition of their identity and the ability to teach Kurdish in schools. It abolishes measures stripping Kurds of Syrian nationality and grants citizenship to affected residents. Newroz, the Kurdish New Year, is declared a paid national holiday, and ethnic discrimination is banned.
The Kurdish administration in Syria's north and northeast called the decree "a first step" but stated that it "does not satisfy the aspirations and hopes of the Syrian people," emphasizing the need for permanent constitutional guarantees.
This situation raises many questions. Will the Syrian army's advance lead to a full-scale conflict? Can the US effectively mediate between the warring parties? And what does the future hold for the Kurdish people in Syria? What are your thoughts on the US role in the region? Do you believe the SDF should integrate into the Syrian army, or should they maintain their autonomy? Let your voice be heard in the comments below!
