The race for the coveted No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft is heating up, with the Las Vegas Raiders still leading the charge, but the New York Giants making significant strides. The Raiders, despite their 2-12 record, remain the top contenders, but the Giants' odds have surged by 10% in Week 15, tying them for the second-best chances at the top pick. However, they're still ranked fourth in projected draft order, as the model predicts they'll win some of their remaining games.
The draft order is based on Austin Mock's projection model, which considers each team's expected finish this season. Here's a breakdown of the top contenders:
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12): The Raiders' offense, led by Kenny Pickett, faced a shutout by the Philadelphia Eagles. Their next game against the Houston Texans is expected to be a loss, but the real test comes in Week 17 against the Giants. The Raiders' season finale against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are out of playoff contention and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL, could be a trap game if the Chiefs rest their players.
- New York Giants (2-12): The Giants' remaining schedule is the third-easiest in the NFL, with games against the Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, and a crucial Week 17 match against the Raiders. If they lose their remaining games, their odds of picking No. 1 soar to 89%.
- Tennessee Titans (2-12): The Titans' win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 14 could be costly. They need to lose out and get help to secure the top pick. Their path involves losing to the Chiefs, Saints, and Jaguars, hoping the Giants and Raiders win.
- New York Jets (3-11): The Jets' chances are slim, with a 11% chance at the No. 1 pick and 19% at No. 2. Their remaining schedule includes games against the Saints, Patriots, and Bills, making the Week 16 game against the Saints crucial.
- Cleveland Browns (3-11): The Browns' chances are slim, with less than 10% odds at the top pick. Their tough schedule includes games against the Bills, Steelers, and Bengals, with a 33% chance if they lose out.
- Arizona Cardinals (3-11): The Cardinals' odds are stacked against them, with only a 6% chance at the No. 1 pick, even if they lose out. Their tough schedule includes NFC West teams with 10+ wins, and they lose tiebreakers to the Jets and Browns.
The race is far from over, with each team's fate hanging in the balance. The draft order will be decided by the final games, and the top pick could go to any of these contenders. Stay tuned for the thrilling conclusion to this draft saga!
