Get ready for a cinematic showdown this holiday season, as FIRE AND ASH takes the lead while MARTY SUPREME, ANACONDA, and SONG SUNG BLUE join the fray in a crowded Christmas box office battle. But here's where it gets controversial: can these newcomers truly compete in a market already buzzing with Avatar: Fire and Ash and the highly anticipated Stranger Things finale on Netflix? And this is the part most people miss—how will shifting consumer habits, from streaming to Gen Z preferences, reshape this weekend's box office dynamics?
- December 23, 2025
- Posted by Shawn Robbins (https://boxofficetheory.com/author/boxofficetheory/)
With the holiday season in full swing and no new releases until January 9, we’re holding off on a New Year’s weekend forecast—unless something unexpected shakes things up. (Stay tuned!) This analysis also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter (https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/weekend-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-marty-supreme-anaconda-song-sung-blue-christmas).
The holiday rush isn’t just at malls—it’s hitting theaters too, as three more major studio releases go nationwide this weekend, targeting the peak Christmas and New Year’s period. Let’s dive into the numbers and the narratives behind them.
Marty Supreme
- BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $13.5–19.5 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Song Sung Blue
- BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7.5–13 million (Wed previews through Sun)
- Traditional Industry Tracking: $10–14 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Anaconda
- BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8–14 million (Wed previews through Sun)
- Traditional Industry Tracking: $20 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Box Office Unpredictability: This time of year, forecasting becomes a wild ride. While Avatar: Fire and Ash opened below expectations last weekend, its franchise legacy suggests a strong second-week hold, especially with premium screen demand.
- Marty Supreme’s Sleeper Success: Thanks to glowing reviews, award buzz, and Timothée Chalamet’s star power, this film is a dark horse. It scored 2025’s best platform debut with $875K from just 6 locations last week.
- Anaconda vs. Song Sung Blue: Our models predict a tight race between these two new releases. But here’s where it gets controversial: While industry projections favor Anaconda, we’re skeptical due to weak social buzz, lukewarm reviews (32% on Rotten Tomatoes), and pre-sale activity. Sure, Jack Black and Paul Rudd’s star power might draw a holiday crowd, but are we overestimating their pull in a post-pandemic, streaming-dominated world?
- Song Sung Blue’s Feel-Good Appeal: This musical is meeting high pre-sale expectations, thanks to Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson’s performances. While it’s no Greatest Showman, it’s a solid adult-friendly option.
- Netflix’s Stranger Things Impact: With three new episodes dropping on Christmas night and the series finale on New Year’s Eve, will audiences choose binge-watching over movie theaters? It’s a question worth asking.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are projected to earn $158 million+, slightly below 2024 ($159.4 million) and significantly below 2019 ($186.8 million). Here’s the breakdown:
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Forecast (Fri-Sun) | 3-Day Change | 4-Day Forecast (Thu-Sun) | Projected Domestic Total | Expected Locations |
|------------------------------|-----------------|------------------------------|------------------|------------------------------|------------------------------|------------------------|
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | Disney (20th) | $61,000,000 | -32% | $80,400,000 | $206,400,000 | ~3,800 |
| Zootopia 2 | Disney | $18,200,000 | 23% | $23,200,000 | $319,700,000 | ~3,300 |
| David | Angel Studios | $15,400,000 | -30% | $20,900,000 | $51,800,000 | ~3,118 |
| The Housemaid | Lionsgate | $14,000,000 | -26% | $19,000,000 | $45,600,000 | ~3,015 |
| Marty Supreme | A24 | $11,000,000 | 1157% | $17,900,000 | $18,800,000 | ~2,800 |
| The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants | Paramount | $12,500,000 | -20% | $17,100,000 | $41,200,000 | ~3,557 |
| Song Sung Blue | Focus | $7,300,000 | NEW | $11,100,000 | $11,100,000 | ~2,400 |
| Anaconda | Sony | $6,900,000 | NEW | $11,000,000 | $11,000,000 | ~3,400 |
| Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 | Universal | $6,000,000 | -21% | $8,300,000 | $121,900,000 | ~2,500 |
| Wicked: For Good | Universal | $6,000,000 | 23% | $7,900,000 | $332,200,000 | ~2,600 |
All forecasts are subject to change, and theater counts are estimates.
Controversy & Comment Hooks: Is Anaconda overhyped, or will it surprise us all? And how much will Stranger Things really impact theater attendance? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—we’re eager to hear your take!
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts, contact us (https://www.boxofficetheory.com/contact).
